INLEIDING TOT DE SKEPTISCHE LITERATUUR.

 

Inleiding in de meteorologie en de klimaat wetenschappen.

Een degelijke inleiding in alle aspecten van de discipline vindt men in:

(a). ‘Weer en klimaat; atmosfeer in verandering’ van Paul C. Crutzen en Thomas E. Graedel(1996). Deel 44 van de wetenschappelijke bibliotheek van Natuur en techniek.

Hierin wordt genuanceerd op de kooldioxide problematiek ingegaan doch als een mogelijk reëel probleem geschetst.

Op een geologische tijdschaal wordt deze behandeld in

(b)  ‘De ondergrond van Nederland’, Ed.E.J. Mulder, Mark C.Geluk, Ipo Ritseman. Wim E. Westerhoff en Theo E. Wong . Een uitgave van het Nederlands Instituut voor toegepaste geowetenschappen TNO, verkrijgbaar via het museum Naturalis te Leiden.

 De IPCC rapportage

Dit zijn uitgaven van Cambridge University Press, maar deze zijn ook via de website van IPCC in te zien.

ed.  Houghton JT et al.,  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change:  The IPCC Scientific Assessment”, Cambridge, 1990.

ed.  Houghton JT et al.,  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 1992:  The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment”, Cambridge, 1992.

ed.  Houghton JT et al.,  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 1995:  The Science of Climate Change”, Cambridge, 1996

ed.  Houghton JT et al.,  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2001:  The Scientific Basis”, Cambridge, 2001.

Het meest controversiële stuk is echter

(c)  The Third Assessment Report (TAR) opgesteld door de gouvernementele ‘policymakers’ van de lidstaten van IPCC

 Algemene sceptische literatuur in boekvorm.

Een vroeg Nederlands protest tegen de alarmerende berichtgeving is een uitgave van ‘The global Institute for the study of natural resources’ in Den Haag, een initiatief van prof. (em) C.J.F. Böttcher (oud-lid van de club van Rome

Science and fiction of the greenhouse effect and carbon dioxide’ (1992)

Böttcher was medeoprichter van the European Science and Environmental Forum dat twee lijvige rapporten uitbracht

 ‘The Global Warming Debate’(1996), (1998) Bourne press limited, Dorset.

Onder de auteurs van bijdragen vindt men de namen van de wetenschapsbeoefenaren die heden ten dage nog steeds als gezaghebbende sceptici worden beschouwd, b.v. Segalstad, Barret, Corbyn, Priem, Jaworowski, Singer, Landscheidt, Soon, Baliunas. Friis Christiansen.

In deze boeken wordt reeds uitvoerig ingegaan op de twijfel aan de oude theorie van Arrhenius dat kooldioxide het belangrijkste broeikasgas zou zijn en op de omkering van de door IPPC veronderstelde causaliteit: meer CO2 in de atmosfeer leidt tot ernstige temperatuurverhoging tot: de temperatuursveranderingen bepalen in overwegende mate de accumulatie in de atmosfeer.

Meer recente beschouwingen over de twijfel aan de IPCC hypothese over de oorzaak van mogelijke ‘global warming’ vindt men in

(d) ‘Taken by storm; the troubled science, policy and politics of global warming’. Chirstopher Essex en Ross McMitrick. (2002) Key Porter Books Limite

(e) ‘Man made global warming: Unravelling a dogma’ van Hans Labohm, Simon Rozendaal en Dick Thoenes (2004) Multiscience Publishing Co. Essex.

 Sceptische overzichtsartikelen

Aan de basis van het hedendaagse protest tegen de IPCC interpretaties staat een stuk dat de grondslag werd voor de zogenaamde ‘Oregon petition’ een protest van 20.000 Amerikanen tegen het Kyotoprotocol.

(e) ‘Environmental effects of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide’ geschreven door Arthur B. Robinson, Sallie L. Baliunas, Willie Soon en W. Robinson. January 1998 (http”//www.015M.org/project/s33p36.htm)

Hierin worden alle dreigende klimaatveranderingen betwist (extreme temperatuur stijging, zeespiegelrijzing en extreme weersomstandigheden).

In de officiële wetenschappelijke literatuur is de essentie van dit ‘manifest’ weergegeven in het artikel

W. Soon, S.L. Baliunas, A,B. Robinson, and Z.W. Robinson. ‘Environment Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide’. Climate Research, 13, 1999, 149-164

Een algemene kritiek van Europese herkomst is:

(f) ‘Naturwissenschaftliche Anmerkungen zu Argumenten der Treibhausdiskussion’ van H. Volz  Ögemwidgmk-gemeinschaftstagung, 116 Jahrgang, heft 9, September 2000

Meer recente aanvallen op de TAR zijn

(g) Crystal balls, virtual realities and ‘storylines’, By Richard S Courtney, Energy and Environment , vol.12 no. 4, 2001

(h) ‘IPCC’s most essential errors’ Peter Dietze,  http://www.john-daly.com/forcing/moderr.htm,

(i). “The UN IPCC's Artful Bias. Glaring Omissions, False Confidence, and Misleading Statistics in the Summary for Policymakers”. Wojick, David E., 2001, Energy & Environment Vol. 13, No 3, pp. 311-328, July 1, 2002. Http://www.john-daly.com/guests/un_ipcc.htm

(h)  is een niet gepubliceerde nota, tot de TAR-opstellers gericht met inhoudelijke kritiek op de data in een concept van de TAR. Dietze stelt dat het veronderstelde effect van aerosolen in de atmosfeer een factor 3 te hoog is gesteld, de verblijftijd van kooldioxide in de atmosfeer verkeerd is berekend, evenals het terugstralingseffect van kooldioxide in de atmosfeer. In de uiteindelijke versies van de onderdelen van de TAR vindt men van dit commentaar weinig meer terug dan de vele malen herhaalde zinsnede ‘dat er nog veel onzekerheden zijn’. 

De meest recente samenvatting van alle bezwaren tegen alarmerende voorspellingen is een artikel ‘in press’

(j)  ‘The global warming debate: A review of the state of science’  van M.L. Khandelar, T.S, Murty en P. Chittibabu, Pure & Applied Geophysics .

Uit de samenvatting wordt hier aangehaald:

“The global warming debate as presented by the media usually focuses on the increasing mean temperature of the earth, associated extreme weather events and future climate projections of increasing frequency of extreme weather events worldwide.  In reality, the climate change issue is much more complex than an increase in earth’s mean temperature and in extreme weather events.  Several recent studies have questioned many of the projections of climate change made by the IPCC reports and at present there is an emerging dissenting view of the global warming science, which is at odds with the IPCC view of the cause and consequence of global warming.

Our review suggests that the dissenting view offered by the skeptics or opponents of global warming appears much more credible than the supporting view put forth by the proponents of global warming.  Further, the projections of future climate change over next fifty to one hundred years is based on insufficiently verified climate models and are therefore not considered reliable at this point in time.”

Een overzicht van de bezwaren tegen de houdbaarheid van de ‘global warming’ theorie, met verdere verwijzing naar bronnen, is weergegeven in de Annex A, te vinden op de website http://mclean.ch/climate/global_warming.htm

In Annex B zijn de referenties in het artikel van Khandekar weergegeven, die verwijzen naar de belangrijkste kritische beschouwingen in de officiële wetenschappelijke literatuur.

In het klimaatdebat wordt frequent teruggegrepen op waarnemingen op een geologische tijdschaal, ontleend aan ijsboringen in de poolgebieden. Twee kritische beschouwingen over de veronderstelde relatie tussen kooldioxide in the atmosfeer en de temperatuur (in het bijzonder gedurende ijstijden) zijn afkomstig van het Noorse instituut voor poolonderzoek:

(k) ‘Do glaciers tell a true atmospheric CO2 story”. Z. Jaworowski, T.V. Segelstad en N.Ono. The science of the total environment 114 (1992) 227-284, Elsevier.

(l) ‘”Atmospheric CO2 and global warming: A critical review. Second revised edition.” Z. Jaworowski, T.V. Segalstad an V.Hisdal. Norsk Polarinstitut. Meddelelser nr 119, Oslo 1992

 

INGANGEN VIA INTERNET

Op tal van websites worden kritische beschouwingen geplaatst en dagelijks discussies gevoerd.

Reeds genoemd is die van  http://mclean.ch/climate/global_warming.htm “Global warming - Is it real?”

En voorts: http://www.john-daly.com “Still waiting for the greenhouse” waarop in het bijzonder zeespiegelrijzing in de Pacific wordt betwijfeld.

Die van de zonspecialist en klimatoloog Douglas Hoyt: http://www.warwickhughes.com/hoyt/climate-change.htm

Dagelijkse nieuwsbulletins zijn CCNet (neem voor een abonnement contact op met Benny Peiser b.j.peiser@livjm.ac.uk )

En die van S Fred Singer, astrofysicus, specialist op het gebied van satelietonderzoek: http://www.sepp.org/

 

ANNEX A. The Greenhouse Warming Scorecard

Bron: http://mclean.ch/climate/global_warming.htm

The scorecard simply gives some of the predictions that climate models have made and compares them to observation as would be done in any normal scientific endeavor. The scorecard includes links where further discussion can be found. At some point a more complete list of references may be added, but most can be found in the links or by a google search.

Type of Prediction

Prediction

Actual

Comments

1900-2000 Surface temperature trend (long term) 0.54 to 1.62 C warming

(IPCC, 1995)		 Surface temperature warming of 0.6 C About half of the warming may come from UHI and other theories account for much of the other warming such as a brighter sun. More discussion of the faulty surface temperature records can be found here, here, here, here, and here.
1979-2003 Mid-tropospheric temperature trend (short term) About a 0.23 C to 0.87 warming per decade (mean of about 0.55 C/decade); assuming mid-tropospheric warming is 50% greater than surface warming

(IPCC, 2001).

 0.08 C warming per decade. Observations based upon MSU satellite observations, and on radiosondes. More discussion here, here, and here.
1979-2003 mid-tropospheric temperature trends compared to surface trends The tropospheric warming trend is supposed to be 1.5 to 2.0 times greater than the surface trend if greenhouse gases are the cause. The surface is warming faster than the mid-troposphere contrary to the models. It is likely the surface observations have a large non-climatic (e.g., UHI) component and thus are essentially wrong. Additional discussion here
1940-1997 Surface temperature trend in arctic regions (using thermometers). 1.0 to 3.0 C warming.

(IPCC, 1995)

 A definite cooling trend since 1940

(Balling, 1992; Kahl et al., 1993; Overpeck et al., 1997)

 Models and observations are going in opposite directions. More discussion here and here. The Antarctic is cooling.
Animals and plants are migrating towards the poles

(Parmesan and Yohe, 2003)

 Study claims that it provides evidence that the climate models are correct. Actually the migration rates are consistent with a warming of 0.025 C/decade and thus are about a tenth of the warming rate predicted by the climate models. These results actually undermine the climate model predictions and probably also indicate something is wrong with the surface temperature measurements. More discussion here.

 
Medieval Warm Period (ca. 1000-1500 AD) (illustrated here and here) The state-of-the-art GFDL climate model claims that the Medieval Warm Period is physically impossible

(Stouffer et al., 1994)

 The Medieval Warm Period is definitively shown to exist based upon 6000 borehole measurements worldwide which show global climate to be 0.2 to 0.6 C warmer than now, on average, for 1000-1500 AD (Huang et al., 1997). Many other proxy studies support the existence of the Medieval Warm Period. The climate models neglect changes in solar luminosity, which can explain this warm period quite well (see the book "The Role of the Sun in Climate Change"). More discussion can be found here, here, and here.
Diurnal temperature range (DTR). No change predicted;"noted" in models after being reported. Decreasing.

(Easterling et al., 1997)

 Detailed discussion here and more discussion here.
Annual cycle of temperature. 0.5 to 1.1 C decrease is predicted to have occurred in 20th century. 0.1 C decrease in 20th century(Mann and Park, 1996) Model prediction is five to ten times too large.
Phase of annual cycle. Change of -1.7 days in 20th century. +0.8 days

(Mann and Park, 1996)

 Model predictions have wrong sign.
Stratospheric cooling. Several degrees per decade predicted

(IPCC, 1995)

 About 0.39 to 0.59 C per decade cooling observed for 1979-2003. Model predictions are too large. The cooling may also be caused by decreasing ozone concentrations in the stratosphere.
Temperature lapse rate in tropics. Decreasing. Appears to have increased. Based on radiosondes and MSU. There is probably a problem with the convection parameterization in the models .More discussion here.
Temperature lapse rate in arctic. Increasing. No change observed. Based on radiosondes and MSU. There is probably a problem with the convection parameterization in the models.
Ocean temperatures Warming of the order of 0.1 C/decade is predicted A 0.11 C warming from 1955 to 1996 was reported by Levitus (2001). It is 0.027 C/decade and consistent with animal and plant migration but inconsistent with the models which predict a warming that is much greater. Also there is no warming from 1955 to 1976 followed by a jump up in temperatures and then no warming from 1977 to 1996. Also the warming is greater in the deep ocean than in the top 1000 feet of the ocean. Also see Barnett et al. (2001). There is a warming, but the spatial and temporal variations are not consistent with greenhouse warming. The warming appears to be coming from below the oceans rather than from the surface downwards. More discussion here and here
Hurricane frequency. More

(Houghton et al., 1988 and frequent claims in the popular press).

 No trend in 20th century. Possible small decrease since 1940 (Landsea et al., 1996). More information here, here, and here.
Hurricane intensity. Greater

(Houghton et al., 1988 and frequent claims in the popular press).

 No trend in 20th century. Models not confirmed. More discussion here.
Sea levels. Rising at 0.5 cm/yr.

(IPCC, 1995)

 Rising at 0.25 cm/yr. More discussion here, here, here, here (Tuvalo), here, and here.
Extreme weather events. More. Only one scientific study found an increase and that was for extreme precipitation events in the US (Karl, 1993). All other studies show no change or decreases. A recent study by Michaels (1997) indicates climate variability is decreasing in recent years. A summary is here.
Northern Hemisphere snow and ice cover. Decreasing. Decreasing according to Cavalieri et al., 1997) for 1978-1996. The most recent measurements indicate the trend may be reversing. More discussion here and here and here.

 
Southern Hemisphere snow and ice cover. Decreasing. Increasing according to Cavalieri et al., 1997) for 1978-1996; but no trend according to (Johannessen et al., 1995). July 1997 was the coldest month ever observed in Antarctica. More discussion here and here.
Southern Hemisphere sea ice cover (using European whaling ship observations). Decreasing. Decreased by 25% from 1958 to 1970 when European whaling ships were not in region (De La Mare, 1997). Japanese whaling ships were in this region between 1946 and 1965 and their observations do not confirm the European whaling observations (Mierzejewska et al., 1997).
Arctic sea ice thickness Claimed to be thinning and then models “predict” it will be thinning (Rothrock et al., 1999; Deser et al., 2000) Initial observations were limited in space and time and gave rise to a false conclusion (Holloway and Sou, 2002; Rigor, et al., 2002) Discussed here.
Mountain glaciers. Receding worldwide. Receding in eight mountain ranges. Advancing in three mountain ranges, according to World Glacier Monitoring Service. Swiss glaciers have been receding for 150 years (or the recession started before carbon dioxide increases) Only about 10% of the glaciers worldwide are adequately monitored. The length of glaciers is not closely related to volume of glaciers and in many cases is unrelated to local air temperatures. More discussion is here.
Kilimanjaro glacier Claimed to be receding due to global warming. No temperature trend at nearby locations. Recession appears to be due to precipitation decrease caused by local land cover changes. Detailed discussion here.
Montana glaciers Claimed to be receding due to global warming. No temperature trend at nearby locations. Recession appears to be caused by precipitation decreases that are consistent with natural variability. Detailed discussion here.
Feedbacks from water vapor, clouds, snow and ice. All models have a net positive feedback. Measurements indicate a net negative feedback. Detailed discussion here.
Water vapor feedback All models assume constant relative humidity. Measurements show constant relative humidity is false and moisture increases by only about a tenth as much as models assume. Detailed discussion here.
Secular increase in anthropogenic aerosols to explain lack of global warming as being offset by aerosols cooling. Modeling efforts indicate maximum trend should be located in central Europe

(Charlson et al., 1991).

 Actual measurements at Davos Switzerland for 1909 to 1970 showed no trend in solar radiation which would be easily detectable, if models were correct

(Hoyt and Frohlich, 1983).

 Models do not agree with measurements.
Anthropogenic sulfate aerosols. 0.6 W/m2 cooling if aerosol amounts actually increased as much as Charlson et al., (1991) claim. 0.2 W/m2 cooling would be observed, if aerosols increased as claimed and scattering properties of sulfate aerosols were treated properly

(Hegg et al., 1996).

 Models overestimate cooling potential of sulfate aerosols by at least a factor of three.
Anthropogenic carbon aerosols. Not included in models as of 2002. 0.2 W/m2 warming, if aerosols increased as Charlson et al. claim. Models neglect possible warming by carbon aerosols, which, if true, would mean greenhouse gas warming is less than models say.
Indirect forcing by anthropogenic aerosols 1 W/m2 cooling, global annual average

(Penner et al., 1992)

 0.1 W/m2, cooling, global annual average

(Kaufman and Fraser, 1997)

 Models have overestimated indirect cooling by aerosols by a factor of 10.
Pan evaporation Models initially predicted an increase in evaporation A decrease has been observed More discussion can be found here and here.
Cloud cover Some models predict an increase and others predict a decrease. The uncertain behavior of clouds is a major reason the IPCC has such a wide spread in its temperature predictions. Pan evaporation and decreasing DTR could be indicating increased cloud cover; on the other hand, satellite observations and observations of lunar brightness indicate that, up until 1998, cloud cover was decreasing. Observations appear too contradictory to validate or invalidate models. A general discussion of cloud cover can be found here.
Precipitation Probably the models predict both increases and decreases. Insufficient data for validation. More work is required. Precipitation seems to be oscillating up and down since 1915.
El Nino frequency Fewer El Nino events

(Knutson and Manabe, 1995).

More El Nino events

(Clement et al., 1996).

 1940-1979: 13 events or 0.33/year.

1979-1997: 5 events or 0.28/year.

No secular trend evident.

 El Nino intensities appear to be increasing which may be a sign of global warming, but we have not located a climate model that makes this prediction. See here.
Coral bleaching. More predicted as warm water episodes above 29 C become more frequent. 1940-1979: 15 bleaching events or 0.38/year

(Glynn, 1993)

1979-1997: 6 bleaching events or 0.33/year

(Hough-Guldberg, 1996).

 Coral bleaching is associated with higher water temperatures and closely associated with El Nino events which have shown no long-term trends. Also most coral bleaching events seemed to be connected with pollution rather than temperature.

The table is not an exhaustive list of every claim made and we may add more items as time goes on. As of the date of this compilation (July 24, 2004), there are 34 items. Using a Win-Loss-Tie (or W-L-T) scoring system, we estimate the record is 3-27-5 for the greenhouse warming hypothesis, which is a poor record. The three items that seemed to be positive (receding glaciers, decreasing snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere, and stratospheric cooling) are heavily publicized without much mention of the other items. Stratospheric cooling is probably the strongest evidence, but ozone depletion may explain part of it and, in any case, it is far weaker than the models predicted. Receding glaciers and decreased snow cover could be explained by the sun which has been getting brighter over the last few centuries. Glaciers started receding before carbon dioxide started increasing, so using glaciers as evidence of greenhouse warming is weak evidence.

Summary of Some Facts that Falsify the Climate Models

In a recent issue of Climatic Change (vol. 37, p. 390), Curt Covey and Martin I. Hoffert make the following comments: "Rather, the test should be whether a theory is false. As Sir Karl Raimund Popper, philosopher of science and developer of the doctrine of falsibility, put it. 'our belief in any particular natural law cannot have a safer basis than our unsuccessful critical attempts to refute it' (Popper, 1979). So far, the climate models used by the IPCC have passed this falsibility test." (Note: this section was mostly written in1997-98.)

As our "Greenhouse Warming Scorecard" shows, the IPCC models are false in many ways. Let's just highlight a few things where the models disagree with observations:

1.The models predict the recent warming due to greenhouse gases should occur equally during the day and night. Observations show most of the warming is occurring at night, so the observations falsify the models. A discussion of the diurnal temperature range (DTR) can be found here. The changes in DTR are caused by changes in surface properties rather than atmospheric properties. Removal of this non-climatic effect reduces the warming of the twentieth century from 0.6 C to about 0.3 C. The climate models get a warming which when plotted versus time and compared to observations appear to parallel each other, but this parallelism is only superficial and does not confirm the models.

2.Several models now published have model global temperatures and measured temperatures paralleling each other over time remarkably well. These models "explain" the warming to 1940 by anthropogenic carbon dioxide, the cooling from 1940 to 1970 by anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, and resumed warming from 1970 to the present by the anthropogenic carbon dioxide warming again become dominant. These models make an implicit unstated (and frankly bizarre) assumption that without these anthropogenic forcings, the natural climate would have been perfectly flat for 100+ years. No century has ever had such a stable climate, but for the anthropogenic forcing models to work, this assumption must be made. The probability of a flat background natural climate is less than 1 in a million; hence, the statistical significance of these apparently successful models is also less than 1 in a million.

3.Many of the climate models predict that cloud cover should be decreasing (while at the same time the total water content of the atmosphere is increasing), and, in fact, such a cloud cover decrease is crucial to amplify the greenhouse effect so it becomes the "enhanced" greenhouse effect. On the other hand, for any of the models to have a chance at explaining the diurnal temperature variations, they must invoke increases in cloud cover such that they decrease the predicted global warming by a factor of 5 to 6.

4.The models predict that the global annual cycle of temperatures should have decreased by 0.5 to 1.1 C during this century if greenhouse gases are forcing climate change. Measurements show only a 0.1 C decrease, thus invalidating the greenhouse warming hypothesis.

5.The models attribute the cooling from about 1940 to 1970 to sulfate aerosols. The quantity of aerosols they used are not based upon measurements, but are themselves model results. One prediction of this model is a maximum amount of aerosols in central Europe. Observations of atmospheric transmission in Davos Switzerland, right in the middle of the region where the model maximum in sulfates presumably existed, show no change in atmospheric transmission, contrary to the IPCC predictions. Observations in Belgium, Ireland, and other locations also falsify the IPCC modeled amounts of sulfate aerosols.

6.The models predict sulfate aerosols will cause a cooling forcing of 0.6 to 0.9 W/m2. Actual field measurements of the scattering properties of sulfate aerosols show that the models overestimate their cooling potential by a factor of 3 to 5. These measurements falsify the model's radiative treatment of sulfates and show that the cooling from 1940 to 1970 cannot be attributed to anthropogenic aerosols.

7.The models neglect to include soot particles, which warm. Measurements show that the warming by soot offsets any cooling by sulfates, particularly in urban regions. These measurements falsify the models treatment of anthropogenic aerosols, because the models are incomplete. One cannot just select certain portions of reality to build a model, while neglecting other portions of reality, and then call the model true.

8.The models predict a warming of about 0.35 C per decade in the mid-troposphere. MSU satellites, radiosonde thermistor, and radiosonde pressure transducers show a warming of about 0.08 C (1979-2003), thus falsifying the IPCC models. Furthermore, radiosonde observations for 1958-2001 show the temperatures are virtually identical for 1958 and 2001 (Seidel et al., 2004).

9.The models predict a warming of 1.0 to 3.0 C should have occurred in the polar regions between 1940 and now. Thermometer measurements show a cooling over this time period for the arctic as a whole, thus falsifying the models. Proxy measurements also show about a 0.3 to 0.4 C cooling for this interval. Alaska has warmed, but this is probably caused by a change in oceanic and atmospheric circulation called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which alone does not confirm, nor deny, the IPCC models.

10.The models predict the phase of the global annual cycle of temperatures should have shifted by minus 1.7 days in the twentieth century. Observations show a phase shift of +0.8 days, opposite in sign to what the models predict, thus falsifying the IPCC models.

11.The models predict a 0.50 cm/yr rise in sea level. The TOPEX/POSEIDEN observations show a 0.25 cm/yr rise (through 2003), providing no solid confirmation of the IPCC models.

These eleven tests all falsify the IPCC climate models. There are many additional ways the models fail, some of which are covered in the scorecard. A common feature of these falsifications is that the models tend to overestimate signals by a factor of 3 to 10. This suggests the predicted warming of 2.5 C for a doubling of greenhouse gases will really be between 0.25 and 0.8 C.

ANNEX B

Overzicht van de officiële literatuur, ontleend aan Khandekar (zie [j]), evenals nog niet eerder genoemde boeken.

De artikelen van sceptici, en die waaraan scepsis over unieke temperatuurstijging in recente tijden kan worden ontleend, zijn gemerkt met * 

Arrhenius, S. (1896), On the influence of carbonic acid in the air upon the temperature of the ground, Philosophical Magazin and Journal of Science. 41, 237-276.

* Avery, S.K., Try, P.D., Anthes, R.A. and Hallgran, R.E. (1996), An open letter to Ben Santer, Bull. Amer. Met. Soc. 77, 1961-1966.

* Balling, Jr. R.C. and Cerveny, R. (2003), Compilation and discussion of trends in severe storms in the United States: Popular perception vs. climate reality, Natural Hazards. 29, 103-112.

Baltuck, M., Dickey, J., Dixon, T. and Harrison C.G.A. (1996), New Approaches Raise Questions About Future Sea Level Change. EOS. 1, 385-388.

* Barlow, A.K. and Latham, J. (1983), A Laboratory Study of the Scavenging of Sub-microscale aerosol by charged raindrops, Q. J. of Royal Met. Soc., 109, 763.

Benestad, R., Solar Activity and Earth’s Climate (Springer, New York 2002).

Boer, G.J., McFarlane, N.A. and Lazare, M. (1992), Greenhouse gas-induced climate change simulated with the CCC second-generation general circulation model, J. of Climate. 5, 1045-1077.

Boer, G.J., Flato, G.J., Reader, M.C. and Ramsden, D. (2000), A transient climate change simulation with greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing: experimental design and comparison with the instrumental record for the 20th century, Climate Dynamics. 16, 405-426.

* Briffa, K.R. (2000), Annual climate variability in the Holocene: interpreting the message of ancient trees, Quaternary science review. 19, 87-105.

Callendar, G.S. (1938), The artificial production of carbon dioxide and its influence on temperature. Q. J. of Royal Met. Soc. 64, 223.

Callendar, G.S., (1940),Variation in the amount of carbon dioxide in different air currents. Q.J. Royal Met. Soc. 66, 395.

Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change (2003),Was late 20th century warming unprecedented over the past two millennia?  Internet.  www.co2science.org/journal/2003/vol6n34c4.htm.

Chamberlin, T.C., (1899), An attempt to frame a working hypothesis to the cause of glacial periods of an atmospheric basis. J. of Geology. 7. 751-787.

* Changnon, S. A. (2003), Shifting economic impacts from weather extremes in the United States: A result of societal changes, not global warming, Natural Hazards. 29, 273-290.

* Chase, T.N., Pielke Sr., R.A., Kittel, T.G.F., Nemani, R.R. and Running, S.W. (1996), The Sensitivity of a general Circulation Model to Global Changes in Leaf Area Index,  J. Geophys. Res. 101, 7393-7408. 

* Chase, T.N., Pielke Sr., R.A., Herman, B and Zeng, X. (2004), Likelihood of rapidly increasing surface temperatures unaccompanied by strong warming in the free troposphere, Climate Research. 25, 185-190.

* Christy, J.R., Spencer, R.W. and McNider, R.T. (1995), Reducing noise in the MSU daily lower tropospheric global temperature data sets, J. of Climate. 8, 888-896.

* Christy, J.R., Spencer, R.W. and Lobl, E.S. (1998), Analysis of the merging procedure for the MSU daily temperature time series. J. of Climate. 11, 2016-2041.

* Christy, J.R., Spencer, R.W. and Braswell, W.D. (2000), MSU tropospheric temperatures: Dataset construction and radiosonde comparison, J. of Atmos. & Oceanic Technology. 17, 1153-1170.

* Dickinson, R.E. (1975).  Solar Variability and the Lower Atmosphere, Bull. of the Amer. Met. Soc. 58, 1240.

* Environment Canada (2003).  CO2/climate report, (summer issue, 32 pages 2003), Downsview, Ontario, Canada.

* Essex, C. and McKitrick, R., Taken by Storm: The Troubled Science and Politics of Global Warming (Porter Books, Toronto, Canada, 2002).

Fauchereau, N., Trzaska, S., Rouault, M. and Richard, Y. (2003), Rainfall variability and changes in South Africa during the 20th century in the global warming context, Natural Hazards. 29, 139-154.

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